The Turning Point?
Looking back on two very different halves to the season so far
After Saturday’s cup defeat to Birmingham, United’s attention turns back to league action. They make the long trip north west to a middling Fleetwood side hoping to, at the very least, preserve their unbeaten record in the league. It’s an opportunity to capitalise on an opponent fresh off losing their main attacking threat in Ryan Graydon to league rivals Salford City, without a direct replacement in the door yet. Add that to a 5-game run of form that reads W0, D1, L4 - in which they’ve scored only one goal - and Harris’ side will surely be targeting all three points to continue their impressive upward curve.
As we prepare to dive back into uninterrupted league action for the next five months, it’s worth taking a minute to reflect on a Jekyll and Hyde first half of the season. One where the first few months were defined by their inconsistent, stuttering nature - not glossed over by a pretty turgid style of football - and where the second few months saw United go on an unbeaten streak in all competitions that only narrowly ended at the Abbey against a Championship side with a £10 million striker leading the line.
That league run is preserved though and now totals 10 unbeaten league games at the time of writing - two away from basically a quarter of the season without losing a game. The last league game we lost was a sunny autumn afternoon in Nottingham back in October. An afternoon that, when you reflect on it, marks the turning point for the season so far.
It’s not the game itself that was disastrous enough to provide a clear-the-slates, baby-out-with-the-bathwater type of reset. That’s not to say it wasn’t disappointing; one thing that has been true all season about this side is they don’t often lose games heavily, and at this level so far they have very rarely been outclassed without a say. But Notts County was one of the few occasions that isn’t true. The home side waltzed to a comfortable 2-0 win, leaving the U’s 13th in the table.
In the away end, there was even some initial murmurings about Harris. Under their breath people whispered, ‘is he the right man to turn this squad around?’. Others recalled comments from other fans: ‘are we seeing those warnings from Gillingham fans especially come to reality?’
Looking back now, it seems a ludicrous prospect. So what did change? What has been the instigator for this recent run of good form? Is it a player or two that have helped to inspire it, a formation shift, a tactical tweak? Does the underlying data reflect the results, or is it simply a lot of luck going our way?
The Results
Let’s start by just outlining the difference in results and underlying numbers before and after that Notts County game. To be absolutely clear, this is everything up to and including the Notts fixture in one group, and then everything since in another group. We’re looking at league games only.
