The Challenge Ahead For Garry Monk
The Challenge Ahead For Garry Monk
Analysing the state of play in the League One relegation battle
Feeling ready? Excited? Nervous? Scared to go through it all again? Probably a bit of everything. But it’s that time - we might not be quite at the run-in yet, but we’re definitely officially in the latter stages of the season. Just as the sun starts coming out, the games start running out, and the margin for error gets smaller and smaller week on week.
United currently have a handy four-point cushion between themselves and the relegation zone, but having lost six of the last seven games, alarm bells are starting to ring for some fans who are still scarred by last season’s great escape.
So what’s the challenge ahead of new head coach Garry Monk? What sort of situation is he getting himself into? Who are the runners and riders he’s up against and what’s their fixture list looking like? We’ve put together a long read analysing the current state of play in League One’s relegation, and most importantly what it means for Cambridge United. Deep breath…
Let’s start by looking at last season. Below is the league table at exactly this point, with eleven games to go:
To start with, the U’s are eight points better off than we were last year with 11 to play, and four places higher. For what it’s worth, our goal difference is also 16 goals better, if it were to come down to it. The battle from last year at this stage probably goes as far as Cheltenham, considering Charlton’s game in hand on Morecambe and eight point margin - so it’s an eight team battle (if you consider Forest Green part of it at all).
Being four points off the red line as United are right now, our most comparable counterpart from last season would be Cheltenham, who are right at the top of what we’re considering to be ‘the battle’. They do have a bit of a buffer below them in terms of number of teams, but it’s also a fairly precarious position too - one gameweek could swing that to a one point gap with a worse goal difference.
If it calms anyone’s nerves, Cheltenham finished 16th on 54 points, picking up 17 points in the last 11, including four wins and five draws. But their run in was much more favourable than ours.
On the other hand, one particularly worrying case from last year is Port Vale. 10 points clear at this stage, their slide into a relegation-threatened team was slow and steady - but it was there. From this point onwards, they didn’t win until the 22nd of April, beating Bristol Rovers at home on the third to last day of the season. That was their only win in the last 11 games, taking six points in that time. They did eventually finish four points off the drop, but it’s a lesson in how quickly things change if you can’t regularly pick up points yourself.
Because of that, we are considering that the relegation battle at the time of writing goes up to 14th place Charlton. Wigan, congratulations, despite a tricky summer (to say the least) we’ve just declared you safe.
So let’s analyse the teams at the bottom of the league in three different groups. Fixtures in caps are home games, fixtures in italics are against another ‘relegation candidate’ from this list.
The “We’ll Probably Be Alright Let’s Be Honest” Lot
This is the group that probably should never have been down there, and who you always felt because of the resources available and quality of their squad would never take too much to click to break away from it, as we’ve seen in recent weeks.
Charlton Athletic
CARLISLE (h), Fleetwood (a), WIGAN (h), Exeter (a), STEVENAGE (h), BARNSLEY (h), Cambridge (a), SHREWSBURY (h), Wycombe (a)
Opponents remaining PPG average: 1.22
Under Nathan Jones, Charlton have (finally) come into some form. They’re unbeaten in six, including a run of three against the league’s top three. It shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise - despite being a real basket case in recent years, they are a club of a stature that should never be involved at this end of the third tier, and their squad just goes to prove that.
Jones has finally got them clicking, and they’re already easing themselves away from the battle - a midweek win at Cheltenham being the best example of that. Add on top of that, their fixture list is definitely the kindest of any team. Despite having played a game or two more than most, barring disaster you can as good as consider Charlton out of this battle, and just hope they play their part in taking points off the others.
Wycombe Wanderers
Reading (a), WIGAN (h), NORTHAMPTON (h), Cambridge (a), PORTSMOUTH (h), Blackpool (a), P*sh (a), DERBY (h), Shrewsbury (a), Port Vale (a), Carlisle (a), CHARLTON (h)
Opponents remaining PPG average: 1.40
Three points better off than us (but 10 goals to the good, so read four points here), and on the same games played. Wycombe are occupying the space that it feels United fans are so frustrated we’re not occupying ourselves - turn Burton into three points and take one from Cheltenham, that’s the only difference. After so many years of being accustomed to Ainsworth’s Wycombe fighting at the top end of the table, this has felt like a transitional year for them. But they have always just about been good enough to stay away from the thick end of the battle, winning 3 and drawing 2 of the last 8, for example.
Continuing that sort of points return would see them to safety - and in fact, looking at their final four games, they, like Charlton, could have a big say in the relegation picture, even if they’re not involved themselves.
Reading
WYCOMBE (h), Derby (a), CAMBRIDGE (h), NORTHAMPTON (h), Bolton (a), LINCOLN (h), Bristol Rovers (a), Barnsley (a), Burton (a), BLACKPOOL (h)
Opponents PPG average: 1.39
Undoubtedly one of the stories of the League One season, despite all the recurring points deductions Ruben Selles’ side look like they’ll easily be able to cruise clear of the relegation places. Having completed a calendar year of not winning away from home earlier this season, players returning from injuries at key times have shown that the quality of their squad and coach is enough to beat plenty of teams at this level. Without the points deduction, they would be 13th, above Wigan on 45 points.
With the likes of Sam Smith and Harvey Knibbs who, as we know, are more than capable of throwing a punch or two in a relegation scrap, their squad is simply too good now that Selles has them playing. Every football supporter is obviously sympathetic to Reading fans - the fact these situations keep repeating themselves year-after-year is a shame on the EFL and their complete lack of due consideration and diligence on prospective owners. But it is frustrating that they could be in a position to tempt Smith and Knibbs away with a much higher wage offer, and then not actually be able to pay them regularly. And also cruise to safety regardless. It’s a flawed system, but their fanbase have had it tough, and once they’re sorted they’ll have one of the biggest budgets in the league and be fighting at the other end of it, I’m sure.
The “We’re Right In This” Lot
This is very much the thick of it. The bulk of the relegation battle, the ones checking their phones for the league table incessantly on a Thursday afternoon at work, just to desperately try to analyse the situation in a slightly different way. The joys of being a lower league football fan.
Exeter City
BOLTON (h), Shrewsbury (a), BURTON (h), Postponed - Leyton Orient (a) (TBC new date), CHARLTON (h), Cheltenham (a), STEVENAGE (h), Port Vale (a), Northampton (a), OXFORD (h)
Opponents PPG average: 1.35
Any Exeter fan reading this might feel a bit dismayed at being put in this bracket. But it feels there’s a way to look at Exeter’s position as a slightly false one in the league. For one thing, they’ve played a game more than almost everyone below them. For another, their goal difference is four goals worse than Cheltenham’s - easily swung, sure, but it’ll come into play for that six-point gap to the red line.
The reason their goal difference is so poor is they really struggle to score goals. Aside from Shrewsbury, they’re the lowest scorers in the division, netting just once more than the Shrews - scoring even less than Carlisle and us, somehow.
The run they went on around the time we played them in December is one of the worst any team has been on this season - their recovery from there has been impressive, and faith in manager Gary Caldwell admirable - but it’s not a stretch to say that if they struggle to find form again at some point and keep struggling to hit the back of the net, they could be a real player in this battle.
Burton Albion
P*SH (h), Portsmouth (a), Exeter (a), PORT VALE (h), Wigan (a), BARNSLEY (h), OXFORD (h), Stevenage (a), CHELTENHAM (h), READING (h), Fleetwood (a)
Opponents PPG average: 1.40
When Burton appointed Martin Paterson in January, a lot of people’s first questions were… who? But Michael Duff’s assistant during a successful year at Barnsley and a less successful spell at Swansea has proven a fair amount of people wrong. They picked up impressive wins at Bristol Rovers and Orient, and at our place proved they had a fair amount of steel when playing with 10 man for the last half hour to hold out for a point.
The worry for them would be their last three losses have all come at home, and in games they really would be expecting more from: Lincoln and Northampton, but Carlisle especially. A team struggling to win at home, 5 points above the drop with an inexperienced manager will always be considered in a bit of trouble - and with P*sh and Pompey their next two, it could get worse before it gets any better.
Cambridge United
The small matter of Cambridge United. More on us later…
Shrewsbury Town
Port Vale (a), EXETER (h), CARLISLE (h), OXFORD (h), Bristol Rovers (a), Portsmouth (a), WYCOMBE (h), Bolton (a), Charlton (a), LEYTON ORIENT (h)
Opponents PPG average: 1.39
Shrews pulled that old trick that we know all too much about: in a bit of trouble? Go and get your old manager who you had some success with many years ago, and hope he can ignite enough things like passion and pride to fight your way out of it. This time, Paul Hurst wasn’t otherwise employed.
Since he’s gone back to try and pull the Shrews out of this relegation battle, he hasn’t exactly pulled up any trees. File his first game, a 2-0 win at Northampton, under a classic new manager bounce, but since then they’ve only won once at Reading - a crazy game that, by all accounts, Reading absolutely dominated and remarkably managed to lose.
That’s not to say they can’t do that a few more times and scrabble enough points to get over the line. But being the league’s lowest scorers and having the second worst goal difference in the league are badges you do not want at this stage of the campaign, and, Daniel Udoh aside, their team lacks genuine quality. Hurst will need to hope he can inspire some of his old magic to keep them away from trouble come May.
Cheltenham Town
Oxford (a), Barnsley (a), P*SH (h), Fleetwood (a), EXETER (h), Leyton Orient (a), CARLISLE (h), BRISTOL ROVERS (h), Burton (a), LINCOLN (h), Stevenage (a)
Opponents PPG average: 1.34
It is genuinely remarkable that Cheltenham Town are not just in this part of the conversation, but may be the one team that League One pundits and commentators feel most confident will be able to pull themselves out of the drop zone. Let’s just recap for those unaware: go back to October 7, and Cheltenham Town were yet to score a single goal in the league. Not one goal. Eleven league games, zero goals. Two weeks later, on two points but still without a win, United came along in generous mood, and gifted Darrell Clarke his first three points as Robins boss.
Since then, they have managed to clock up solid mid-table form. The turnaround has been ridiculous. They’re currently recording 1.17 PPG, so they’ll still need to get a bit better if they’re to get themselves safe - but, they do have a kind run-in on paper of this group of teams. It’ll be the story of the season if they manage to make it.
Port Vale
SHREWSBURY (h), Leyton Orient (a), OXFORD (h), Burton (a), BRISTOL ROVERS (h), Northampton (a), Wigan (a), P*sh (a), EXETER (h), WYCOMBE (h), Bolton (a), CAMBRIDGE (h)
Opponents PPG average: 1.40
Vale’s form has been in freefall for a long time. In fact, they are yet to win in 2024. And since hiring Darren Moore on a 3,000 year contract, they’ve only picked up one point in five games, including letting a 2-0 lead slip in injury time against Fleetwood. They’ve also let in a few howlers along the way, the opener for Lincoln being one I’d check out if you haven’t already.
They do score goals, with a better goalscoring record than the four teams above them (including United), but having missed out on the elusive new manager bounce they so desperately needed, the outlook does look fairly bleak. Moore is the reason to be positive for Vale, a manager with lots of experience across the divisions and success at Sheffield Wednesday and Doncaster especially, but he has a lot of work to do.
The “We’re Probably F*cked” Lot
This is the group that have probably (and definitely in one case) given themselves too much to do.
Fleetwood
Stevenage (a), BRISTOL ROVERS (h), CHARLTON (h), CHELTENHAM (h), Oxford (a), Blackpool (a), NORTHAMPTON (h), P*sh (a), Leyton Orient (a), BURTON (h)
Opponents PPG Average: 1.40
Fleetwood have been going through a revival recently, and in fact it’s probably harsh putting them in this category. To go a step further, there’s actually a lot of reasons to be somewhat hopeful - more so than Vale, at least. Charlie Adam has got them playing, and more importantly, scoring. They’ve only blanked in one game since his appointment at the start of the year, and that was at home to Pompey. Striker Jayden Stockley has fuelled that hope, scoring eight since Boxing Day for the Cod Army.
Having said that, Fleetwood have played a game or two more than everyone in the drop zone, and still have seven points to make up which, as we found out last season, is not insignificant. The January window looked like they were preparing for life in League Two already by offloading some of their better players before they ran out of contract, but with recent form they have given themselves a chance of an unlikely escape.
Carlisle United
Charlton (a), BARNSLEY (h), Shrewsbury (a), STEVENAGE (h), P*sh (a), LINCOLN (h), Northampton (a), Cheltenham (a), BLACKPOOL (h), WYCOMBE (h), Derby (a)
Opponents PPG Average: 1.50
There really isn’t much to say about Carlisle. They’re rubbish, as we saw when we dispatched them 4-0 only the other week (although it feels like a lifetime ago). They’ve got the hardest run-in, the joint leakiest defence in the league, and are prone to conceding comedy own goals every week it seems. The only debate is whether they’re a worse League One side than Forest Green last year.
The Relegation Picture Summary
Looking at an overall snapshot of all the teams discussed, thanks to the excellent SoccerStats, it’s interesting to see there’s now not much variety in terms of the PPG of teams the relegation candidates are facing - barring Charlton as the obvious anomaly. Aside from Carlisle, ours at -4% is the toughest - but it’s only marginal. So, all to play for.
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What About Us Then?
The Mighty U’s
NORTHAMPTON (H), Lincoln (A), Reading (A), WYCOMBE (H), Barnsley (A), WIGAN (H), Blackpool (A), CHARLTON (H), Bristol Rovers (A), DERBY COUNTY (H), Port Vale (A).
Opponents PPG average: 1.43
For United and Monk, the challenge feels simultaneously simple and fraught with danger. With 38 points on the board, a point per game over the final 11 matches will put us on 49, a total which is likely to make for a distinctly nervous end to the season for those of an amber and black persuasion. Maintaining our current PPG of 1.09 would take us to 50, which has been enough for survival in seven of the last 10 League One seasons, but which would probably also set nerves jangling in CB5.
So a slight uptick in form is required if the U’s are to make things comfortable for themselves. The good news is we have a relatively favourable run of games coming up at home, where our form is solid, with matches against mid-table Northampton and Wigan, as well as relegation-adjacent Wycombe and Charlton, before hosting Derby, whose fate may be sealed by that point. A haul of 8-10 points from those five games would likely go a long way to ensuring our survival.
That would leave us needing four-six points from our remaining away games, and this is where things get a bit trickier. United have struggled on the road this season, with nine of our 11 away points coming in matches against teams in the bottom five. We only have one such fixture, against Port Vale on the final day of the season, left on the docket, and it is also worth noting we have really struggled - home and away - against teams in the top half, picking up just 11 points in 18 matches. Six of our last 11 opponents reside in this part of the table, albeit some of them will (hopefully) have little to play for by the time we face them.
It feels like the next four games could be pivotal in determining United’s fate. Home wins against Northampton and Wycombe, and a point or two on the road at Lincoln and Reading, would leave us well set for the run-in, but anything less than that and the pressure is likely to start ramping up.
One thing we do have in our favour is that Monk has taken over teams in similar or worse situations twice in his managerial career so far - at Swansea and Birmingham - and steered both to safety. Hopefully he’ll make it a hat-trick this time around.
Prediction time
So how will things actually pan out? We put our forecasting skills to the test using The Fishy’s excellent league table predictor, predicting the results of all the teams we’ve just outlined above, and came up with the following:
Matt
Julian
So you’d definitely want Julian’s slightly more confident prediction than Matt’s, where you can just imagine what that away end at Vale Park would look like as we have all eyes on Burton Albion - AGAIN. Whatever happens, strap in, it’s going to be some ride.
Play the predictor yourself and let us know in the comments where you have us finishing.
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