Given the flying start through the opening months, naturally there’s been lots of talk about overperformance. Cambridge United are 4th after 11 games, which I don’t think a single person expected ahead of the season.
But while it kind of doesn’t feel like we should be 4th, it also doesn’t really feel like we shouldn’t be 4th… does it? There’s been both bad luck, referee issues and individual mistakes, but also some good luck, highlighted perfectly by Connor Taylor’s beautiful own goal vs Wycombe recently.
If bad luck and good luck are canceling out, are we overperforming? It seems like this team is able to fight their way to a scrappy point (or 3) even in off games. And when things click, they really click and 4th, 3rd, or even something more seem possible.
But then you look at the Expected Points tables… FotMob puts us 14th. Opta Analyst has us 15th. Impect has us 15th.
Are all the modern data metrics ever confusing for you? Need a reminder about the difference between xG and xT? What exactly is Field Tilt…
We’ve created a living glossary of all the key data terms. Click on the link below and you can scroll through the chapters to find the term you want the definition for before heading back to enjoy your reading.
